Demographic Research, Volume 6

adjusted TFR age group analysis assume assumption average baby boom Billari birth rates Birth-cohort Bulgaria calculations census child childbearing intensities childlessness cohabitation cohort fertility cohorts born completed fertility convergence countries decline Demographic Research demographic transition DZ twins East Germany economic Europe expected family policy female fertility aging effect fertility pattern fertility postponement Figure Finland higher higher-order birth Hoem household Hungary included increase individual Kohler level of fertility lifetime birth probability marriage married mean age method migration mortality National Statistical Institute Netherlands Norwegian parameters parents parity progression measures parity progression ratios period fertility period parity progression population forecast postponement continues scenario postponement of fertility postponement stops scenario prediction intervals relatively Rostock second births social spatial momentum Statistics Norway stochastically dominates synthetic cohort tempo changes tempo distortions tempo-adjusted total fertility rate trends unemployed unemployment urban variable variance changes Western European woman women